Article 50 · Brexit

€50 billion exit bill for Brexit? Nonsense.

How many times are we going to have to listen to people like Sir Ivan Rogers, Jean-Claude Juncker our the usual Remoaner suspects at home tell us how expensive it is going to be for the UK to leave the EU?

Project Fear wasn’t just about trying to stop us voting to leave.  It has continued post-referendum to try and scare us into staying.

Before the referendum, we heard nothing but doom and gloom about how our economy would “crash” to use David Cameron’s terminology, the moment we voted to leave.  In fact, the stock market has soared, consumer spending has continued to rise, unemployment has continued to fall, the deficit is coming down (albeit still too slowly for comfort) and investment into the UK has continued.  In short, all of the wildly exaggerated claims of the Remain lobby have been dispelled.  Just about the only thing that they got right was the fall in the pound.  But even that has its upsides – cheaper UK exports and a boom for domestic tourism and the leisure industry.

The latest scare story from the increasingly desperate Remoaners  is the absurd idea that the UK is somehow obliged to pay a vast exit fee when we leave.  This is nonsense.  There is nothing in any of the EU treaties that requires an exiting Member State to pay anything. Article 50 simply provides that the “treaties cease to apply” two years from the giving of notice, if a withdrawal agreement is not reached between the parties.

In short, unless the UK agrees to voluntarily pay something, there is nothing that the EU can do to force us to pay.

The EU is facing a financial crisis as and when the UK exits because it will suffer a sudden, enormous hole in its bloated budget.  The UK is the  second largest net contributor after Germany.  In two years time, the countless billions of pounds paid into EU coffers by the UK every year will no longer be available.  The EU financial gravy train faces derailment. That is why the EU establishment is so fearful of a UK exit.

It may be that when the dust settles on the forthcoming Article 50 negotiation, the UK will agree to make payments of some kind as part of the overall deal.  But the point is that such payments will be our choice not the product of any legally binding obligation imposed by the EU.

It is high time that instead of forever asking the question “What effect will Brexit have on the UK?” the Remoaners and their EU chums started asking the more pertinent question “What effect will Brexit have on the EU?”   The honest answer is: Who Knows?  But one thing is for sure, looking around the mish-mash of subsidy-hungry former Warsaw Pact countries and near bankrupt ClubMed states, it ain’t gonna be pretty.

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